Outcome bias and process goals

What it is

Outcome bias is judging a decision by its result. In trading, a rule-breaking trade that happened to win feels like a good trade, and a perfect setup that lost feels like a mistake. Over time that teaches the wrong lessons.

Process goals fix the target on what you control: following the plan, sizing correctly, taking every valid setup, logging every trade. Profit is the result of doing those well over many trades, not of any one trade.

How to spot it

• Grade trades on execution separately from the result.

How to use it

• Use your journal's grade and rules checklist to score each trade on process.
• Review rule-breaking winners as hard as losing trades.

Common mistakes

• Changing the plan after one loss that followed it perfectly.
• Repeating a rule break because it worked last time.

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